Republican and Democratic presidential candidates hauled in an enormous $144 million in the third quarter of 2015 but the vast majority of the money flowed into only a handful of campaigns, leaving the 2016 race distinctively stratified into the haves, the have-notes and the hopeless.
Hillary Clinton paced both parties, ending September with $33 million in the bank. But her chief challenger, Bernie Sanders, was close behind with $27.1 million on hand, and he touted raising another $3.2 million since this week’s debate. No other Democrat had as much as $1 million in their coffers.
Of the sprawling 15-candidate Republican field, the latest Federal Election Commission filings show just five contenders with the kind of $10 million-plus treasury that most political operatives consider necessary to mount a serious national campaign: Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and, on the basis of his ability to tap into his much-bragged about personal wealth, Donald Trump. Only one other GOP candidate, Carly Fiorina with $5.5 million, had more than $3 million in campaign cash remaining.
The rest must depend on a burrowing into a single state, as most of the rest have done in either Iowa or New Hampshire, and hope their better-heeled super PACs (for those who have them) can fill the breach. It is a risky strategy, as the early departures of Rick Perry and Scott Walker showed. Both exited the race when they ran out of campaign cash, even as supportive super PACs were flush with tens of millions of dollars.
Perhaps the biggest story of the filing day was that Bush, once expected to pull away from the GOP field financially, has instead settled into the pack. His $10.27 million cash on hand at the end of September ranked fourth among Republicans, trailing Cruz, Carson and Rubio, whose campaign, though outraised more than 2:1 by Bush in last quarter, relished its slight cash advantage.
Rubio’s campaign released their figures within minutes of Bush, once they knew they had more money. “Thanks to smart budgeting and fiscal discipline,” the campaign bragged, “Marco Rubio for President started October with more money in the bank than Jeb Bush.”
Sniping between the Rubio and Bush camps has grown louder in recent days as they compete for the same donors and voters.
Jeb Bush Jr. told a group of college Republicans in New York on Thursday that Rubio should consider bowing out of the race entirely because of his poor voting record in the Senate. “It's just, kind of, like, dude, you know, either drop out or do something, but we're paying you to do something, it ain't run for president,” Bush Jr. said. And after Rubio’s campaign boasted about their fundraising numbers, Bush spokesman Tim Miller jabbed back on Twitter about the nonprofit that has aired millions of dollars in pro-Rubio TV ads this year but does not disclose its donors, “Haven't seen the Rubio press release on frugality,” Miller wrote, “did it include the $6 million in secret money TV ads they saved money on?”
The latest reports tell only a partial picture. Big money super PACs do not have to disclose their fundraising until next year and their warchests can dwarf those of the campaigns.
In a show of financial force, Bush’s super PAC, which raised more than $100 million in the first half of 2015, announced Thursday afternoon it was reserving $16.8 million in television time in eight states that will vote in March, led by $6.1 million in Texas, $2.6 million in Georgia, $2.1 million in Michigan and $1.7 million in Tennessee. That sum is more than any Republican had in so-called hard campaign dollars.
For now, Rubio plans to invest most of his money in television ads. Rubio has reserved nearly $17 million in television ads, beginning in late November through the early primary states. That sum amounts to money than he currently has on hand. Ads are typically paid week by week, and Rubio spokesman Alex Conant said the campaign is ahead of track to raise the necessary funds to pay for the blitz. “We will not be giving back any time,” he said.
Fiorina’s fundraising report thrust her out of the bottom rung of the race as her fundraising picked up dramatically after two strong debate performances.
She had raised only $325,000 in contributions above $200 in the first 35 days of July and August leading up to the first debate, when she was relegated to the undercard contest. But after her standout performance there, she lapped that figure in less than 48 hours. And in the two weeks after the second debate, when she joined the main stage and stood up to Trump, she averaged $100,000 per day in itemized contributions, suggesting she could yet fund a national campaign.
Trump, despite his claim that he doesn’t fundraise, brought in nearly $4 million, two-thirds of it in contributions under $200. The billionaire put only $100,000 of his own money into the campaign in the last three months.
Overall, the fundraising figures show the growing power of small donors for campaigns that are limited to $2,700 contributions. Among the Democrats, Sanders nearly matched Clinton dollar for dollar, despite her aggressive fundraising schedule and his refusal to cater to big donors. He was powered by 650,000 small donors who gave an average of $30 each.
Political newcomer Ben Carson led the Republican field in overall fundraising, bringing in $20.7 million, largely on the strength of a national small donor network he can tap month after month. He raised $12.4 million in contributions under $200 – more than every other GOP campaign, save Bush, raised in total. Carson spent heavily to raise that sum, burning through $14 million, more than any other Republican.
Cruz, meanwhile, demonstrated strength among donors big and small, raising $6.8 million from people who gave more than $200, and $5.3 million in smaller donations. Cruz also spent less of his haul – 57 percent – than any other top fundraiser.
But Bush spent a higher percentage of his haul, 86 percent, in the quarter as he crisscrossed the country for fundraising events that included enlisting his brother and father, both former presidents, in the cause. After raising more than $11 million in the last two weeks of June – a clip of $760,000 per day – Bush’s fundraising pace slowed to under $150,000 per day in July, August and September.
On Thursday, Bush became the first Republican to reveal his bundlers – those volunteers raising more than $17,600 for his campaign – and the list included roughly 350 supporters, including former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor.
Chris Christie and John Kasich, each of whom are basing their campaigns largely on winning New Hampshire, disclosed campaign fundraising figures for the first time, raising $4.2 million and $4.3 million respectively. Kasich spent less, ending with $2.6 million to Christie’s $1.4 million.
Others, more starved for cash, are staving off questions of collapse.
Rand Paul burned through $2 million more than he raised and ended with $2.1 million on hand, but owed debts of more than $365,000. Paul’s top strategists issued a memo Thursday pushing back against the “false narrative” that Paul is “on the ropes.”
Bobby Jindal ended the quarter with a mere $260,000 in cash. Jindal’s monthly payroll tops $100,000 and he must still pay to get on the ballot across the country. In the last three months, Jindal spent $1.56 for every $1 he raised at a time when most campaigns are trying to grow their bottom line.
And then there is Lincoln Chafee, the Republican-turned-independent-turned-Democrat whose debate performance this week was widely panned. He raised the least: $15,457.
